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Power demand to grow by 5-6pc in a decade: NTDC

Annual demand for electricity in Pakistan is to increase by five to six percent over the next 10 years, the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) has forecast.

In 2020, peak demand in the ex-Pepco system is to be around 32,000 MW, according to NTDC.

“Induction of large power-generation facilities is required every year,” the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority noted in its state of the industry report for the year 2012. At the same time, transmission and distribution systems are required to be strengthened on a huge scale, and will require annual funding of billions of dollars, Nepra said.

A review of future requirement of electricity and its supply position shows that, by 2015, the overall demand at peak hours will be around 26,000 MW.

To meet this demand without load-shedding and with a minimum margin of reserve generation, the installed generation capacity has to be closer to 36,000 MW, an increase of 12,000 MW over a period of three years, the regulator notes in its report.

With current expansion plans and progress in implementation of on-going projects, the crisis in the power sector is expected to continue well beyond 2020, Nepra noted. It recommended the building of major hydropower plants and base load power generation through coal.

The report said there are no short-term solutions to the present crisis, and that import of oil and gas and other fuels may require periods of long-term planning and implementation.

Similarly, addition of new large power plants requires considerable lead times. Under such conditions, import of electricity from India and Iran can help alleviate the electricity shortages in a relatively short time, it says.

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